The first week of October puts attention on central banks, with the RBA and RBNZ rate decisions. No FOMC meeting this month. The end of the week is marked by dual September labor market reports, one from Canada and one from the United States.
The RBNZ meets for the first time since August, and to an extent, rates markets haven’t changed their expectations in recent weeks. In August, the RBNZ revised its expectation for the main rate in 2023 from 3.70% to 4.10% by 2Q’23. In recent weeks, RBNZ Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said that policymakers want to bring the main rate “comfortably above neutral” in order to help reduce inflation pressures .
Rates markets have been pricing in a 50-bps rate hike at each of the October and November meeting. Beyond there, however, the cadence of rate hikes may slow to 25-bps in 2023.Data for 3Q’22 thus far has led the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker to sit at +2.3% annualized. The upcoming US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for September is expected to come in at 56 from 56.9, suggesting that growth is decelerating but remains in modestly positive territory.
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