We enter two days of central bank meetings where the intent to maintain a hawkish narrative will be challenged by evidence of slowing inflation and gr
owth. The Bank of Canada goes first, withthe ECB followingtomorrow. We see risks that new economic forecasts will make markets doubt the BoC’s hawkish stance, and CAD may face yet more pressure. USD: Positioning adjustment over? The process of rebalancing in overbought dollar positions was reversed yesterday as PMIs highlighted once again the widening growth gap between the US and other key developed areas of the world.
The ECB Bank Lending Survey, also released yesterday, showed that weaker economic conditions and higher interest rates have had a clear impact on borrowing. Credit standards were tightened in 3Q, and banks expect to tighten them further in 4Q. Demand for borrowing also declined in 3Q in line with higher rates. All these are indications that the ECB’s tightening is being passed through to the economy effectively and argue against further hikes at this stage.
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