El Nino’s dry weather threatens to further dent coffee production in Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest grower, after excessive rains dragged down output to its lowest in more than a decade, driving global prices to all-time highs. | Reuters
Indonesia’s weather agency said the El Nino weather phenomenon, which typically brings prolonged hot and dry weather to the tropical country, is already affecting more than two-thirds of the nation, including Java and parts of Sumatra, two key coffee producing areas.
In 2023/24, Indonesia’s coffee output is forecast at 9.7 million 60-kg bags, down from 11.85 million bags a year ago and lowest since 2011/12, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.Plantations in Sumatra and Java are likely to bear the brunt of any drought, with meteorologists forecasting El Nino to intensify towards the end of 2023 and early next year, a crucial time for flowering and fruit formation.
“Coffee supply is very thin. I personally say it is down around 25% compared to last year,” one Lampung-based coffee trader told Reuters, adding that the decreased supply has created panic buying in the past months.Coffee yields in Indonesia range between 0.7 and 1.0 metric tons per hectare, while Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta supplier, produces 2.7 tons per hectare.
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