French government bond yields edged higher on Monday while spreads with their German peers tightened after French leader Emmanuel Macron led following the first round of the presidential election.
With 96% of the votes counted for Sunday's first round, Macron had 27.41% of the votes and far-right challenger Marine Le Pen had 24.03%.
“At some point in the next couple of weeks, the German-French yield spread might widen significantly up to 85 bps if polls suggest a close call for the run-off,” he added. “Now it is pricing in a Macron victory.” “The spread will stay probably at around 50 bps on expectations that Macron will remain president, with a further tightening below 40 bps if he should win the run-off,” he added.
Investors also focused on the European Central Bank policy meeting due on Thursday while watching for moves in U.S. Treasuries ahead of US inflation data.
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