The nation would be in a recession right now without the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and the...
, Kaplan said, but if it does, it’s because the fiscal spending is continuing to stimulate the economy.
“I think this stimulation is somewhat artificial,” he said. “If I were at the Fed, I’d say, listen, I don’t want to respond to an artificial or temporary spending stimulus, because I think the organic growth of the economy is weakening. That’s going to be the debate this fall.”He predicts the Fed will implement one or two more interest-rate increases, if any. He hopes as inflation continues to settle, the Fed will start cutting rates later next year.
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