With Hurricane Lee churning off the New England coast this past month, the mainstream media is filled with articles claiming that climate change will cause more hurricanes to strike New England.
In reality, the objective data shows that New England is experiencing a dramatic and ongoing decline in hurricanes as the climate modestly warms. There is also no indication that the beneficial trend will reverse itself in the near future.
The media articles reference a 2021 paper in which the authors claim they devised a computer model that predicts a warming climate will bring more hurricanes to places like New England. The planet has been modestly warming since the end of the Little Ice Age approximately 150 years ago, so if the computer model is accurate, we should already be seeing a long-standing increase in the frequency of New England hurricanes.
It’s not just that New England hurricane frequency is declining. The strength of New England hurricanes is declining, too. The hurricanes from the 1850s through the 1950s had an average maximum strength of 1.8 while over New England. The hurricanes since 1960 have had an average maximum strength of 1.6 while over New England.
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