Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will take the podium in New York on Thursday with his colleagues at the U.S. central bank in apparent agreement to hold interest rates unchanged at their next meeting in two weeks but with still-great uncertainty about what happens after that.
In remarks scheduled for 12 p.m. at the Economic Club of New York, Powell will all but close out a frenetic month following U.S. monetary policymakers' last meeting in mid-September, when they opted to leave their benchmark lending rate unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% to assess how the economy was evolving.
If that were not enough, the bond market is reeling and tightening financial conditions at a rapid clip, and the most deadly Middle East conflict in years has erupted with no swift resolution in sight and worries it may widen into a regional war with unknown economic consequences. Powell's appearance comes less than 48 hours before the beginning of the traditional quiet period ahead of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. While a handful of other Fed officials have appearances later on Thursday and Friday before blackout begins on Saturday, it is Powell's remarks that will set the tone for policy expectations heading into that meeting, and financial markets will hang on every word.
Should they leave rates unchanged in two weeks as is now widely expected, it would mark the first back-to-back meetings with no rate increase since the Fed kicked off its hiking campaign in March 2022.
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