Fed rate hikes won't stop inflation if government spending stays high, paper says

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Fed rate hikes won't stop inflation if government spending stays high, paper says
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Federal Reserve interest rate hikes will not successfully cool inflation unless the federal government also slows fiscal spending, a new paper suggests.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, right, Lael Brainard, Fed vice chair, and John Williams, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, on Friday, Aug. 26, 2022.

In the span of just two years, Congress unleashed a torrent of federal money to shield the economy from the coronavirus pandemic, approving roughly $6 trillion in relief measures. Lawmakers approved about $2 trillion under President Biden and $4.1 trillion under former President Donald Trump, according to a COVIDpublished by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan organization based in Washington.

The paper suggests that as a result, the Fed can only reduce inflation once "public debt can be successfully stabilized by credible future fiscal plans." Without limitations on federal spending, rate hikes will only make the cost of servicing the $30 trillion national debt more expensive, pushing inflation higher.

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