The Federal Reserve, having raised interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades, is poised Wednesday to leave rates alone for the first time in 15 months to allow time to gauge the impact of its aggressive drive to tame inflation.
The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged Wednesday after having raised it 10 straight timesThe Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes, which have made mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing costlier, have been intended to slow spending and defeat the worst bout of inflation in four decades
The central bank’s 18 policymakers envision raising their key rate by an additional half-point this year, to about 5.6%, according to economic forecasts they issued Wednesday. One reason why the officials may be predicting additional rate hikes is that they foresee a modestly healthier economy and more persistent inflation that might require higher rates to cool. Their updated forecasts show them predicting economic growth of 1% for 2023, an upgrade from their meager 0.4% forecast in March. And the officials expect “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, of 3.9% by year’s end, higher than they expected three months ago.
The central bank’s rate hikes have coincided with a steady drop in consumer inflation, from a peak of 9.1% last June to 4% as of May. But excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core inflation remains chronically high. Core inflation was 5.3% in May compared with 12 months earlier, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The 18 members of the committee have appeared divided between those who favor one or two more rate hikes and those who would like to leave the Fed’s key rate where it is for at least a few months and see whether inflation further moderates. This group is concerned that hiking too aggressively would heighten the risk of causing a deep recession.
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