Donald Trump has claimed that the recent “anti-police crusade” in America has led to a crime wave. But the evidence is mixed at best
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP claims that an “anti-police crusade” orchestrated by the American left has led to a “shocking explosion of shootings, killings, murders and heinous crimes of violence.” On July 22nd he announced he would send a surge of federal agents to police big cities. But the evidence that America is experiencing a serious crime wave is mixed at best.
There are some important exceptions to this decline. Non-residential burglaries spiked in early June, coinciding with anti-racist protests triggered by the killing of George Floyd, when looting of retail stores was common. Domestic violence has also probably increased. Data are sparse because only a small fraction of victims report being abused, and because police departments can be slow to share what numbers they do have.
Alarmingly, murder also seems to be on the rise. So far this year, homicides in big cities appear to be up by around 20% against the average for the same period in 2015-19. It is worth noting, however, that murder rates can vary a lot from year to year. One city which has seen a marked increase in violence in recent weeks is New York.
Homicide rates tend to fall in September as the weather cools and teenagers head back to classrooms. But this year may be different. Many schools are unlikely to reopen. Courts have been shut, making it harder for prosecutors to stop gang violence. Michael LiPetri, chief of crime-control strategies at the NYPD, says the share of shootings involving gang members in his city has more than doubled since last year.
Editor’s note: a longer version of this article was published in the US section of the print edition under the headline “Few signs of a surge”.
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