A surprise decision by the Supreme Court could change the landscape of the battle for the House in 2024, putting Republicans at a significant disadvantage.
On Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled in Allen v. Milligan that Alabama's Republican-drawn congressional map likely violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of black voters, which make up more than a quarter of the state's population. The decision will lead to the redrawing of states' congressional maps, creating several majority-black districts that lean heavily Democrat.
Two Alabama and two Louisiana races were changed from solid Republican to toss-up, while one North Carolina race was changed from toss-up to lean Democrat. The ruling threatens to change Republican fortunes in several other states across the South as well; Wasserman said that the five changes are only those that can be confirmed for now, and more changes are likely to come.
"Politically, the ruling could shake up the 2024 battle for the House, send shockwaves beyond Alabama and potentially offset a new gerrymander Republicans are likely to impose in North Carolina," Wasserman wrote."The key states to watch are Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina." Here are the five races that now could potentially face a different fate than prior to Allen v. Milligan.Carl took office in 2021, where he has styled himself as a conservative and a major ally of former President Donald Trump. He won handily in 2020 against Democrat James Averhart, with 64.4% of the vote. In 2022, he won in a landslide against Libertarian Alexander Remrey, winning 83.6% of the vote.
Given the Republicans' slim House majority, Allen v. Milligan could prove a major blow to the chances of keeping its majority in 2024.
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