NFL predictions, picks, and odds for Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions. NFL Week 3 betting best bet and game analysis.
The Lions were much better on the other side of the ball last season, finishing sixth in the league in EPA/play on offense. That success has continued into 2023 with the Lions ranking third in the league in yards per game and fourth in yards per play .
The Lions have made massive strides under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and their balanced attack does a good job of moving the chains behind a strong line.might not bring the wow factor at quarterback but he's efficient and accurate, while the running game should be strong even if David Montgomery is unable to suit up due to a thigh injury.
On the surface, Atlanta's defense has been terrific this year but if you look behind the numbers, things aren't as promising. While the Falcons allowed just 133.5 passing yards per game, they rank a modest 18th in defensive dropback EPA. Facing Bryce Young in his NFL debut followed by Jordan Love last week can create some inflated data, especially with the terrible WR corps that the Panthers and Packers possess.
In addition, Atlanta was gashed for more than 150 yards on the ground in Week 1 so stopping the run could be a major problem. Like Detroit, Atlanta was awful on defense last year and was 29th in EPA while ranking 31st in success rate. Also like Detroit, Atlanta added a few players in free agency but hasn't really done enough to completely turn around its stop unit.
We're seeing a relatively modest total in this game and while there has to be some concern that Atlanta's slow-tempo, run-based offense will chew up the clock, I still like the Over in this spot.
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