Maintaining current seaborne flows of 3.5 million barrels per day would require about a third more oil tankers than Russia has access to, says analyst Alexei Gromov.
The price cap could also have a limited effect if itA G7 plan to take effect on December 5 will allow the shipping industry to help export Russian oil but only at a set price – the price cap.
Russia needs to boost its fleet by 157 Aframax, 65 Suezmax, and 18 VLCC vessels, Gromov told Reuters. Sixty are owned by Russian companies and another 70 aged at least 15 years – old by oil shipping standards – have been sold this year to unnamed firms that could trade oil outside the cap, Gromov said.
That would leave a shortfall of 110 tankers should Moscow seek to fully skirt the price cap, Gromov added.Pooling resources with buyer countries “If they self-insure, if they use the vessels that are not subject to US or EU jurisdiction – whether it’s Chinese or Indian or Russian vessels – they may try to set up ways not to trigger these restrictions outright,” said Aleksandar Dukic, partner at global law firm Hogan Lovells.Andrea Olivi, global head of wet freight at commodities trading giant Trafigura, said almost 40 crude and product tankers have been sold to Eastern entities in September at above-market rates given the vessels’ age.
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