Earnings season gets under way in less than 10 days.
Earnings season will be a key test for the stock market after the S&P 500 last week closed out its worst half-year performance since 1970, said strategists from Morgan Stanley.
The direction of stocks going forward will be mostly tied to second-quarter earnings as interest rate hikes and surging inflation reflect the growth slowdown more accurately, according to a Morgan Stanley report on Tuesday. “Equity markets could hang around, and even rally in the absence of a confirmation of a recession,” the strategists wrote. “Conversely, in the absence of confirmation a recession will be avoided, it will also be difficult for equity markets to rally too far. As we have discussed, earnings are too high even in the soft landing outcome.”
“The ongoing search for clues as to whether the second half of the year can see the market stage a strong recovery will begin with what companies have to say during their second quarter earnings calls,” wrote Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, in an email. “Although negative earnings revisions are increasing, overall expectations for the second quarter remain surprisingly solid despite ongoing constraints affecting corporate operating margins.
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