Even after sell-off, stocks are not cheap based on shaky 2023 earnings estimates

Investors are now starting to value stocks off of 2023 earnings.

Futures are up , and Hong Kong is staging a rally, largely on indications that the reopening in China is continuing. That's good news, but if the market is really going to put in a bottom we need more optimistic news on the other big macro issues: inflation and Ukraine/Russia. This Friday's consumer price index report will be the big economic data point for the week.

In other words, the S & P is not particularly cheap or expensive, but it still may not be compelling enough to elicit more buying, given that no one knows what the inflation pictures looks like. Can we trust the estimates? That murkiness makes those 2023 estimates look very untrustworthy. Much of the nearly 10% increase in the S & P 500 since the May 20 intraday bottom is based on the idea that the Federal Reserve may not be as aggressive in the second half of the year.

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