Economic sentiment dropped in October as the first countries reported somewhat better-than-expected GDP
growth in the third quarter, making a technical recession in the second half of the year unlikely – but adecline in 4Q is a realistic prospect. Businesses report a slight tick-up in selling price expectations, but hard datastill looks benign. The decline in the Economic Sentiment Indicator in October came as no surprise after the PMI had already dropped further into contraction territory. Still, the drop was relatively mild – from 93.4 to 93.3.
Retail trade did see a marked deterioration of sentiment, mainly related to weaker recent activity, slowing expected output ahead and higher inventories. The underlying picture is still quite negative. The service sector increase is only based on expectations, while recent production was still weaker in October. New orders in manufacturing continue to drop, and so does capacity utilisation.
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