Euro and rouble to nosedive if a full-blown war breaks out – Danske Bank EURUSD Oil RussianFederation Markets Banks
probability for a full-blown war. The latter would trigger a substantial fall in RUB, weaker EUR and weaker Scandies.“We now place a 50% probability of the conflict remaining contained in Eastern Ukraine but update our probabilities for other scenarios. We see a 30% probability of a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine, including invasion of key cities like Kiev, and only a 20% probability of de-escalation as a result from a diplomatic deal.
“In case of an escalation, we should expect to see markedly lower EUR/USD and Brent above $100/barrel. In currencies, Scandies and Eastern Europe can drop 1-3% versus the EUR and equity markets can probably drop a few percent in the worst-case scenario.”Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
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