The US Dollar started the week with a firm footing, resulting in EUR/USD trading as low as 1.0619. Following central banks' mostly hawkish decisions
last week, investors are concerned that persistently tight financial conditions will harm economic developments for longer than anticipated. Despite most central banks having lately decided to pause their aggressive tightening policies, policymakers pledged for "higher for longer," with rate cuts out of the table, at least for the first half of 2024.
Meanwhile, the Euro temporarily benefited from a better-than-anticipated German IFO survey. The Business Climate printed in September to 85.7, better than the 85.2 forecast. Expectations improved from 82.6 to 82.9, while the assessment of the current situation contracted modestly, resulting in 88.7 from 89 in August. European Central Bank Presidentwill speak at the top of the hour, testifying before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.
The United States released the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which posted -0.16 in August, below a downwardly revised 0.07 in July. The country will later publish the September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Still, this week's focus will be on inflation after August's discouraging readings. Germany and the Euro Zone will unveil the preliminary estimates of the September Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Thursday and Friday, respectively. By the end of the week, the US will release the August Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, foreseen up by 0.5% MoM, much higher than the previous 0.2%.pair trades a handful of pips above the intraday low, with its bearish bias intact.
The risk skews to the downside in the near term, according to the 4-hour chart. The 20 SMA gains downward traction above the current level while below the longer ones, in line with persistent US Dollar demand. Finally, technicalSupport levels: 1.0610 1.0580 1.0540
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