Egypt should be able to gain significant green infrastructure investment, and avoid being trapped into decarbonizing Europe.
near the Suez Canal. Given Maersk’s focus on methanol, it’s likely that they will be manufacturing that fuel.But ammonia isn’t just being considered for shipping, it’s being considered for export as well, especially to Asia. This part of the potential for green energy exports from high-renewables areas to lower renewables areas has some merit, likely more merit than green ammonia as a fuel.
Finally, a major hindrance on shipping volumes will be increased fuel costs due to ensuring the significant negative externalities are added to their cost or as more expensive replacements used. While some shipping is essential, I project that hydrogen and ammonia will be increasingly manufactured domestically in countries from decarbonized grid electricity, as green hydrogen’s raw materials of water and CO2 are in abundance in most places, even if desalination is required in some.
for export to the Asian country. Blue hydrogen is not a climate solution. The upstream methane emissions remain regardless of capturing CO2 at the point of hydrogen manufacturing, and capturing the CO2 at point of manufacturing is likely 85%. Finally, most CCS is used for enhanced oil recovery, and as Egypt is an oil and gas country, the likelihood of it using CO2 for that purpose with two to three times the mass of CO2 emitted when the oil is burned as was sequestered is very high.
Building wind, solar, transmission, and storage sufficient to eliminate first oil and then gas generation would reasonably be higher on Egypt’s priority list than significantly reducing the energy and value of generated electricity by turning it, inefficiently, into liquid and gaseous fuels which are too expensive to have markets. Egypt’s current electricity demand is twice Algeria’s, about 160 TWh per year, but its renewables targets are also more ambitious, aiming to reach 42% by 2035.
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