There are concerns that the Federal Reserve Board will choose to raise rates more aggressively in response to job gains.
The August employment report gave a somewhat mixed picture as the establishment survey showed a strong gain of 315,000 jobs, while the household survey showed the unemployment rate rising by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 percent. However, the picture given by both surveys is somewhat more complicated.
There had been some concerns about the lack of employment growth in the household survey even as the establishment survey was showing large gains. This report should alleviate those concerns. The unemployment rate for high school grads rose 0.6 percentage points to 4.2 percentage points, while the unemployment rate for college grads fell 0.1 percentage points to 1.9 percent, a new low for the recovery.The average hourly wage increased at a modest 0.3 percent rate in August, but it rose at an annual rate of 4.9 percent when comparing the last three months with the prior three months . That’s higher than what is consistent with 2.0 percent inflation, but down from 6.
Nursing homes added 2,300 jobs in August, while childcare added 2,800. These sectors, which have struggled to get workers, are now down 14.2 percent and 8.4 percent from pre-pandemic levels, respectively.
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