Two competing narratives are battling it out this earnings season. One says the recovery is in trouble, another says the second quarter was the bottom.
Was the second quarter the bottom?
But the key to understanding the rally is the persistent belief that the second quarter was the bottom of the pandemic and its economic impact. Even 3M, which declined to provide guidance, spoke about a "broader improvement" in business recently on the conference call. CEO Michael Roman said, "We're seeing demand come back.", expressed a similar sentiment, saying "visibility has improved in the past couple of months but remains low" but that "based upon current marketing conditions, we think the worst is behind us.
Here's Xerox on its earnings release: "The continued uncertainty around the spread and resurgence of the virus has changed our prior expectation for an inflection point following the second quarter. ... We now expect a slower pace of gradual recovery in the second half of the year."
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