Warmer air holds more water, and climate-driven circulation changes are making storms more disastrous.
DUBAI – Greenhouse gas emissions made recent deadly flooding in the United Arab Emirates and Oman anywhere from 10 per cent to 40 per cent more intense than it would have been in the pre-industrial era, according to a rapid analysis of the event by the World Weather Attribution research initiative.
“If there would not have been an El Niño year, it would have not rained in this way. But at the same time, if it would not be for climate change, it would not have rained so heavily as it did now,” said Dr Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and a WWA researcher.Worldwide, extreme rain has increased in intensity and frequency with the rising temperature, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found.
The scientists said the storm could be a 1-in-25-year event, but could not say how much climate change is worsening El Niño-juiced storms. They concluded that climate change worsened the storm based on what the short meteorological record does offer them, combined with regional and global trends, the fact of warmer air holding more water, and that climate-driven circulation changes can worsen such storms.In addition to their climate-science conclusions, the WWA researchers analysed vulnerabilities that exacerbate hazardous conditions and address how Emirati and Omani officials might adapt to future floods.
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