Dollar firm as FOMC meeting begins - BBH – by hareshmenghani DollarIndex Fed InterestRate Banks
75 bp to 2.50%. WIRP suggests only around 15% odds of a 100 bp move. With recent weakness in the data, there is simply no need to go bigger this week. Updated macro forecasts and Dot Plots won’t come until the September meeting. “A 25 bp hike is fully priced in for November 2 but after that, one last 25 bp hike is only partially priced in. The swaps market paints a similar picture, with 175 of tightening priced in over the next 6 months that would see the policy rate peak near 3.5%.
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