New research suggests that, in the very long run, size is a great advantage
FOR CENTURIES prior to the Industrial Revolution, Asia’s massively populous societies made the continent the world’s centre of economic gravity. Industrialisation in Europe and North America in the 19th century briefly knocked it from its perch. But now Asian countries’ collective economic might, measured in real output on a purchasing-power-parity basis, is forecast to account for more than half of global production by 2020.
Leaning against this force, however, is migration. Right now, the richest places are not the most populous. Should it become relatively easy to migrate, people will move from countries that are populous but poor to others that are rich. As migration swells the population of rich places, their long-run dominance is assured because of the link between population size and innovation.
Stranger things have happened. A millennium ago real output per person was significantly higher in China than in Britain. To predict that a European backwater would lead the world into the most transformative economic epoch in history would have seemed like madness. Over very long time horizons the world’s poorest places can indeed become the world’s richest, even if it does not happen often.
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