Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog.
As elections loom, Washington looks inward. The world may not revolve around America’s political calendar, but dictators and rogues are sophisticated and factor it in as they seek advantage. When Nikita Khrushchev first met President John F. Kennedy, the Soviet premier joked, “You know, Mr. Kennedy, we voted for you.
Nor was Aliyev alone. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed chose Nov. 3, 2020, American Election Day, to launch his genocidal campaign against the country’s Tigray people. While neither Democrats nor Republicans often focus on Africa, his timing guaranteed that he could begin his genocide with a minimum of attention, not only in the United States but also across much of Europe.
Hamas, too, chose the fall. While the terrorist group timed its assault to the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, its leaders believed that Washington might be distracted. Had they not achieved a scale of slaughter beyond their wildest hope, they might have been correct. The point is not simply the past is prescriptive. Not every invasion centers on Washington. Russian forces, for example, poured into Ukraine in February 2022. The pattern, however, is real, and provincial politics have a high cost.
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