Forecasts are never more absurd than when predicting the next black swan, writes DeonGouws_Credo.
When I started doing marathons in the 1980s, I took out an annual subscription to SA Runner magazine.
It probably stands to reason: how much is there to say, really, about an activity which boils down to putting one foot in front of the other … for hours on end? Investment publications are not unlike running magazines. The characters change over time, the plotlines less so. Twelve months ago, I wrote about the folly of forecasting; at the beginning of this year, my inbox was once again flooded by strategists sharing their best guesses about what lay in store for us over the course of 2022.
Towards the end of 2021, I saw a tweet which highlighted the five-year total return numbers of a cross-section of JSE companies. The clear winners? Platinum, iron ore and gold. And the losers? Property, hospitals, retailers and financials.Which is why I won’t bore you with any of my own forecasts either. And it also explains why you should take every strategist’s outlook with a huge pinch of salt.
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