The party’s lead in the congressional generic ballot is higher now than it was in 2018
For the win. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images By now, you are probably aware that Donald Trump’s poll numbers have seen better days. The president trails Joe Biden by an average of 9.6 percent in RealClearPolitics’s poll of polls. On Tuesday, USA Today/Suffolk’s poll — which had Trump leading Biden last December — showed the Democratic nominee ahead by 12. No incumbent president has ever trailed by this much at this point in an election cycle.
Graphic: FiveThirtyEight Republicans can lose the popular vote in a rout this November and still retain their Senate Majority. But if Biden beats Trump by ten points — while Democratic House candidates outpace GOP ones by nine — Chuck Schumer will probably be a Majority Leader come January. As the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank reported in September 2016, a Democratic Party super PAC experimented with trying to damage GOP House candidates by linking them to Trump — and concluded that this did less to hurt down-ballot Republicans than it did to aid the GOP standard-bearer:
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