If action on emissions is not significantly increased, unliveable weather conditions could become a regular occurrence in parts of the world
2016, a line of thunderstorms passed through the Australian state of Victoria. By the end of the following day, it had sent 3,000 people to hospital. Storms typically hurt people by blowing down buildings, flooding streets or setting fires. In this case, though, the casualties were caused by asthma. Late that afternoon a peculiarly powerful downdraft generated by the storm front pushed a layer of cold air thick with pollen, dust and other particles through Melbourne.
How damaging these impacts will be to the economic and physical welfare of humankind depends on how much warming takes place and how well people adapt—both of which are currently unknowable. But it is possible to get a qualitative sense of what they could mean by looking at the range of timescales over which they operate. At one end, a thunderstorm’s pollen surge, sweeping by in minutes; at the other, sea-level rise which could last longer than any civilisation in human history.
But more heat in the oceans means that those tropical cyclones which do get going are more likely to become intense. There is thus broad agreement among experts that the proportion of hurricanes which reach category four or five looks set to increase. So, too, does the rainfall associated with them, because warmer air holds more moisture. Studies of the flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey suggest that warming due to climate change increased its rainfall by about 15%.
In the nearer term, there is an increased likelihood of heatwaves. Between August 3rd and 16th 2003, Europe saw 39,000 more deaths than would have been expected on the basis of previous years. The excess mortality was due to a summer that was hotter, by some estimates, than any for the previous 500 years. Modelling suggests that, even in 2003, climate change had made such a heatwave at least twice as likely.
Unusual infernos have plagued California for many years now, again as a result of parched conditions, which are drying out rivers, lakes and underground aquifers across the entire south-west of the state. This is no regular drought. It is 19 years in the making, enough for it to be classed as a “megadrought”.
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