Just this week, new analysis revealed that the true death toll of the pandemic is massively higher than reported – some 18 million, rather than the officially reported 5.9 million (4/10)
, says that the true number of lives lost to the pandemic by 31 December 2021 was close to 18 million. That far outstrips the 5.9 million deaths that the study says were reported to various official sources for the same period. The difference is down to significant undercounts in official statistics, owing to delayed and incomplete reporting and a lack of data in dozens of countries.
Excess deaths are a good indicator of COVID-19 deaths, Wang says, citing studies from Sweden and the Netherlands suggesting that COVID-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths during the pandemic. But he stresses that such estimates also include deaths from other causes.
The IHME’s results are the first estimate of global excess deaths to appear in a peer-reviewed journal. A rival analysis being prepared by the World Health Organization has run into delays but is scheduled to be published later this month.magazine in London, which arrived at some 18 million excess deaths by the end of 2021. But the error bars on the IHME’s analysis are notably narrower:has a 95% uncertainty interval of 12.6 million to 21.0 million; the IHME’s is just 17.1 million to 19.
“They still have their ludicrous estimate for Japan at over 100,000 excess deaths, which is over six times the reported deaths. I really don’t know how they are getting that,” he says.
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