Our San Diego Econometer considers predictions of a shock to the global economy.
asked, “Is It the Economy Or the Company?” So far, it appears investors think it is more the economy, with UPS and other transportation stocks hit hard.: I believe it will be extraordinarily difficult for central banks to raise interest rates sufficiently to reign in inflation without slowing economic growth to a level that results in a global recession. A tight labor market and continued energy and food supply chain disruptions will only exacerbate the issue.
lockdowns, and trade tensions. Surging energy prices from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are depressing European production and consumer sentiment. Developing countries are also struggling with soaring fuel and food prices.“FOMO” — fear of missing out — makes global recession prophecies self-fulfilling. Consider 2020’s toilet paper crisis: a few bought more TP to “be ready” for an emergency. Then, TP ran a bit shorter than usual; media covered it and activated FOMO.
lockdowns, and attacks on the tech sector. In the U.S., the Fed will have to keep raising interest rates to slow underlying inflation. High mortgage rates will hurt housing. Inventories of some consumer goods have backed up. In Europe, high natural gas prices are hammering the economy. A global recession, even if relatively mild, will be hard to avoid.: And let’s be sure we don’t talk ourselves into one.
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