In the year described by analysts as 'the worst in the euro's history,' what are the chances that the European currency could collapse and what are the most likely scenarios ahead? Read more at
Analysts have described 2022 as “the worst year in the euro’s history”. However, the euro’s relevance has been in decline for the last two decades. Its share of global official holdings of foreign exchange reserves was 20.6% at the end of 2021, down from around 25% in 2003.
It is a bitter but necessary pill to swallow in order to avoid further negative outcomes for the euro.One of the key drivers of the euro’s depreciation against the dollar in 2022 has been the widening of the monetary policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Growing pessimism has already resulted in a significant depreciation of the single currency , and it is hard to identify catalysts that could reverse the euro’s course.
The euro has historically undergone two significant episodes of real devaluation. The first occurred between November 2009 and July 2012; it was precipitated by the Great Financial Crisis and worsened by the Eurozone debt crisis. The euro’s real effective exchange rate fell roughly 17%, from 110 to 92 levels.
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