Could Texas Be a Swing State in November?

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Could Texas Be a Swing State in November?
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A new poll with Trump down by five points suggests the Lone Star State may not be off the table for the Biden campaign

Photo: Matt Rourke/AP/Shutterstock While Democratic officials are encouraging Joe Biden to bet on Texas — where the Party has not won a statewide election since 1994 — the former vice-president’s campaign has been hesitant so far to do so, citing a more traditional route to the White House through wins in Obama-Trump states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

In the survey, which is weighted for education, Biden leads Trump 48 percent to 43 percent, which appears to be driven in part by the pandemic: Trump’s approval/disapproval rating for his handling of the coronavirus is 41/51 percent, compared with 55/42 percent for Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Another poll released on Sunday from YouGov showed a more competitive race, with Trump up over Biden by just one percent, comfortably within the margin of error.

If Biden is able to keep the state in contention in November, the prospect of a swing election in Texas has substantial impacts for Democrats down-ballot. Aside from its 38 electoral college votes , Democrats are vying for five House seats left open by retiring Republicans; two of them are considered toss-ups by Cook Political Report, while the west Texas seat vacated by Will Hurd is considered leaning Democratic.

Texas has long been expected to transition to a more purple hue in the coming years, with Latinos representing around 50 percent of the state’s population under 18. Since the 2016 election, the state has added over 2.5 million people to its voter rolls, many of whom are Latino voters coming of age or young transplants from California.

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