Bernie Sanders has grabbed the early lead in the race to become the Democratic p...
- Bernie Sanders has grabbed the early lead in the race to become the Democratic presidential nominee to challenge President Donald Trump in November, but one online political wagering market is showing an increase in bets on a different outcome: A contested party convention.
On PredictIt, one of the most active markets taking bets on U.S. politics, “Yes” contracts on the question “Will the Democrats have a brokered convention in 2020?” were trading at 54 cents on Thursday. Bettors come from the general public and are not necessarily more knowledgeable than anyone else. Failure to secure a first-ballot win would result in a “brokered convention” - a term for the horse-trading that would ensue among the candidates and the party’s power brokers to determine who gets the nomination. That has not happened in either the Democratic or Republican party nominating process since 1952.
Only 100 delegates have been awarded so far after caucuses in Iowa and Nevada and a primary in New Hampshire. That is only 5% of the total needed for a first-ballot convention win.
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