By 2100, China’s population will likely be half its current size. It will also be a lot older, with fewer working-age men and women, says this professor who studies China’s demography.
A man pushes an elderly woman in a wheelchair outside a supermarket in Beijing on Jul 22, 2023. The final retirement age has not been specified, but an earlier official report suggests it is likely to end up at around 65 years old.
With a fertility rate of 1.1 children per woman - way below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a native population - and more deaths each year than births, China’s future is one of declining population, with an enormous increase in the numbers of elderly. That represents a loss of more than half its current population in around 75 years. A population decline that drastic would wreak havoc on its labour force, causing untold economic problems.
Similarly, the numbers of children and young adults in China, those aged 19 and under, will drop from 21 per cent in 2023 to 11 per cent in 2100.
Retirement Fertility Rate Demography
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