Commentary: Can China’s stimulus blitz fix its flagging economy?

China News

Commentary: Can China’s stimulus blitz fix its flagging economy?
China Economy
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China’s economy is undergoing turbulence, but its economic outlook remains relatively positive, says this economics professor.

of communist party rule, was made in response to concerns that China could miss its own 5 per cent annual growth target.

In an attempt to stem the downward spiral that in August saw house prices fall by their fastest rate in nine years, the central bank has reduced theGOOD NEWS BOOSTS INVESTMENT SENTIMENTand the price of commodities as investors expect a boost in demand for goods and services. And, following the slew of new measures, this is exactly what we have seen.

But it could be a while before China’s property market starts to overheat. House prices in China are falling fast and there’s lots of spare inventory. Goldman Sachs estimated in April that the government may need to spend more than 15 trillion yuan to fix the problems plaguing the sector - far more than the recent stimulus blitz can provide on its own.

China’s economic miracle has traditionally relied on the expansion of exports, which reached their peak at 36 per cent of gross domestic product in 2006. This ratio has come down considerably since then, falling to 19.7 per cent in 2023, but it still remains high relative to comparable economies. In 2022, the export-to-GDP ratio in the United States, for example, was 11.6 per cent.

These infrastructure projects are connecting China with resource-rich central Asian countries through roads, railways, gas pipelines and electricity networks. China signed a lucrative gas supply contract with Kazakhstan in 2023. And China now accounts for the majority of Mongolia’s mineral exports, which increased by approximately 3 per cent between 2023 and 2024.

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