Climate attribution tools critical for understanding extreme events

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Climate attribution tools critical for understanding extreme events
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Just in: New peer-reviewed analyses of extreme weather and climate across the world from 2021-2022. Find out more about the new research: ExplainingExtremes BulletinAMS ametsoc AMS2023

New NOAA research published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society finds that the extreme heat and drought experienced by California and Nevada from October 2020 to September 2021 was made six times more likely by climate change. This photo of Lake Oroville, California, in April 2021 reflected the severity of water shortages across the region that year.

“A key finding emerging both from this new research in BAMS and elsewhere in the scientific literature is that extreme heat events are increasingly far outside the historical record because of climate change, which has implications for risk assessment,” explained Stephanie Herring, climate scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and one of the report’s editors.

Co-located events — previously only studied in isolation — were also examined, showing that the risk of multiple perils happening at the same time is also changing. For example, one paper studied the 2021 marine and terrestrial heat wave that affected people, commerce, infrastructure and marine fisheries throughout Asia, including Japan, Korea and China. The chances of such an event are 30 times more likely today due to climate change, and likely to happen every 1.

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