China will learn from Russia's mistakes in Ukraine and seek to establish “overwhelming force” before mounting any invasion of Taiwan, the director of the CIA warned Wednesday.
“I think the Chinese leadership is trying to study the lessons of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and what it tells them,” William Burns told the Aspen Security Forum. “I think our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan but how and when they would do it.”
“I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you’ve got to amass overwhelming force if you’re going to contemplate that in the future,” Burns said.Such is their anxiety about a possible war — that the idea of China taking the time to learn from the Ukraine war practically amounts to a consoling thought for the Biden administration.
The relationship between the United States and China has turned adversarial in recent years due to a mix of economic and pandemic-related disputes sharpened by China's efforts to acquire military control over the South China Sea and upgrade its nuclear forces and naval power. In that context, the strategic significance of Taiwan has loomed large, as the island democracy is an unofficial friend of the U.S.
“The United States is hollowing out and blurring up the One China policy,” Chinese Ambassador Qin Gang said during his appearance at the Aspen Security Forum. “It is substantially uplifting the official links with Taiwan by sending more officials to the island. It is sending sophisticated weapons to Taiwan and even claims that the U.S. will defend Taiwan militar[ily]."
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