China is shoring up international support, while attempting to isolate Taiwan on the world stage
If Beijing were to launch a military attempt on Taiwan, Vladimir Putin would be Xi’s most important political and economic ally. China has been an economic lifeline to Russia since the start of the invasion against Ukraine – trade between the two countries hasby almost 40% this year – and Xi’s rhetoric regarding the conflict in Ukraine foreshadows the arguments that would be made should a conflict breakout in China’s back yard.
“Russia reaffirms its adherence to the one-China principle, recognises Taiwan as an inalienable part of China’s territory, opposes any form of ‘Taiwan independence’, and firmly supports China’s measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” theFor the past year, Beijing has been trying to convince European countries not to follow the US with its increasingly harsh line on China.
In the region, Beijing has “pretty much given up” on building alliances with Japan and South Korea, according to Yu Jie, a senior research fellow at Chatham House. China has also seen its relationship with the Philippines sour under president Ferdinand Marcos Jr who has pursued. But poorer countries in south-east Asia are faced with the geopolitical – and economic – reality of their proximity to China.
“Western attempts to portray Ukraine as one front in an existential threat between democracy and authoritarianism have not landed in south-east Asia,” says Sebastian Strangio, a journalist focused on the region. One exception is Singapore, the only country in the region to join western sanctions on, partly because its leaders “want to avoid a world where small countries are bullied by larger ones”, says Strangio.
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