The Qing dynasty in China, despite its incredible socio-political success across two centuries, had collapsed to nothing by 1912.
, and a new study highlights three crucial factors that played a role – each of which are scarily familiar to us today., the Great Qing took control of Beijing in 1644 and reached its greatest extent in terms of area by 1760. In 1820, the imperial dynasty had made China the world's largest economy, but trouble lay ahead.
Here, researchers from Osaka University in Japan, Shanghai Normal University in China, the Evolution Institute and the University of Washington in the US, and the Complexity Science Hub Vienna in Austria, usedThe theory, which is based on mathematical models, splits societies into four sections:, the elites, the generation population, and an extra component that measures political instability. Each section influences the others in a dynamic way.
"We argue that the four-fold population explosion peaking in the 19th century, the growing competition for a stagnant number of elite positions, and increasing state fiscal stress combined to produce an increasingly disgruntled populace and elite, leading to significant internal rebellions,"Population growth led to overcrowding, poverty, and an overflow of qualified bureaucrats unable to rise up the ranks, the researchers say.
That's easier said than done though. These stresses often appear over the longer term, whereas governments are typically changing and evolving over the short term, and that means the fate of the Qing dynasty could well be repeated elsewhere.Peter Turchin, from the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Austria."Assuming it's a thing of the past and can't recur would be a mistake.
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