China's COVID surge likely deadlier than U.S. peak before vaccines

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China's COVID surge likely deadlier than U.S. peak before vaccines
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China's failure to boost its vulnerable population could be contributing to high daily deaths, an analyst said.

," he said, referring to people who have not previously come into contact with the virus."Furthermore, the wave China is experiencing now is with a far more transmissible variant than the U.S. experienced then," he added.

Since scrapping lockdowns, mass testing and contact tracing, Chinese health officials have also revised the criteria for COVID-related deaths, which now exclude patients who die with preexisting conditions. The WHO believes China's definition isand contributing to undercounting, the health body's emergencies director Mike Ryan said on Wednesday.

The WHO acknowledges that Beijing may simply be struggling to accurately track what could be the world's largest COVID outbreak. Models like the one produced by Airfinity have therefore become a consistent way to assess the spread of the virus in China, where current and former health officials say tracking the outbreak amounts to a guessing game.

"Examining what we know about China and using data from previous surges around the world can help us make predictions about what's likely to be happening in China. We also extensively track data on mobility, local media and anecdotal reports to see if that corroborates our estimates in real-time," he said.frank public messaging

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