Science, Space and Technology News 2023
Simulations showed that meltwater flowing beneath Antarctic glaciers accelerated sea-level rise by 15% by 2300, suggesting it should be factored into future projections.
The extra ice loss caused by this meltwater flowing out to sea from beneath Antarctic glaciers is not currently accounted for in the models generating major sea-level rise projections, such as those of the. If this process turns out to be an important driver of ice loss across the entire Antarctic ice sheet, it could mean current projections underestimate the pace of global sea-level rise in decades to come.
A key takeaway, beyond the understudied role of subglacial discharge in accelerating sea-level rise, is the importance of what humanity does in the coming decades to rein in greenhouse gas emissions, said Greenbaum. The low emissions scenario runs of the model did not show the glaciers retreating all the way into the trench and avoided the resulting runaway contributions to sea-level rise.
The notion that subglacial discharge causes additional ice shelf melting is widely accepted in the scientific community, said Greenbaum. But it hasn’t been included in sea-level rise projections because many researchers weren’t sure if the process’ effect was sufficiently large to increase sea-level rise, mainly because its effects are localized around the glacier’s ice shelf.
For the control and low-emissions model runs the contributions to sea-level rise were close to zero or even slightly negative with or without subglacial discharge at 2300. But in a high emissions scenario, the model found that subglacial discharge increased the sea-level rise contribution of these glaciers from 19 millimeters to 22 millimeters in 2300.
The researchers behind this study are doing just that. Pelle said they are in the process of submitting a research proposal to extend their new model to the entire Antarctic ice sheet.
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