Don't expect ChatGPT to transform the US economy in the next decade, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says
Krugman has previously discussed ChatGPT's implications, saying it may be able to do tasks like reporting and writing"more efficiently than humans." In his latest column, he added that large language models, like ChatGPT,"will make the economy more productive but will also probably hurt some workers whose skills have been devalued."
"But this time around, how large will these effects be? And how quickly will they come about?" he asked."On the second, history suggests that large economic effects from AI will take longer to materialize than many people currently seem to expect," Krugman said. He used the example of the rise in computing power during the mid-1900s and its lagged effect on labor productivity.
"Not to put too fine a point on it, but anyone who predicts a radical acceleration of economic growth thanks to AI — which would lead to a large rise in tax receipts — and simultaneously predicts a future fiscal crisis unless we make drastic cuts to Medicare and Social Security isn't making much sense," Krugman said.
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