The number of California properties facing severe wildfire risk is expected to grow sixfold over the next 30 years, according to new research.
One in five California Airbnb short-term rental properties are in wildfire-prone areas, yet the company provides no warnings or evacuation information.
In California, more than 4.6 million properties — about 41% — have a .03% or greater chance of being involved in a wildfire this year. That figure is expected to grow in 30 years by 7.6% to include more than 5.5 million properties, according to First Street Foundation’s projections.Severe drought, gusty winds and sloping topography were a devastating combination for this seaside housing development in Laguna Niguel.
The researchers created the simulations using the Forest Service’s 2016 Landfire data set, which they updated with additional sources to account for more recent prescribed burns and disturbances, to assess the state of fuels, Eby said. They used a weather data set from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that provided a 10-year time series and updated that with information from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he said.
Federal employees are prohibited from endorsing or not endorsing private businesses, the Forest Service said. But Greg Dillon, director of the Fire Modeling Institute at the agency’s Rocky Mountain Research Station, said the methodology appeared sound. “If one home in a neighborhood works to mitigate their wildfire risk, but their neighbors aren’t doing anything, then they’re not effectively reducing their risk very much,” he said. “It takes community action.”
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