Federal Reserve officials adjourned their July 26-27 policy meeting with an unusually long eight-week break before their next gathering, sending a heavier-than-normal amount of U.S. data about inflation, jobs, and the economy to their in-boxes.
The interlude, however, has been less clarifying than humbling as U.S. central bank officials gained little sense of how their battle against inflation may end, and instead acknowledged the fight may take longer than expected.
All told, despite the Fed's fastest set of rate hikes since the early 1980s, inflation so far is moving sideways. For inflation to fall from its current annual pace to something near the Fed's 2% target, the month-to-month increase would have to average around 0.2%, about a third of what it has been averaging since the start of 2021.Most sobering, the mechanics aren't working as expected.
More notably for the Fed, the job market not only remains strong, it is starting to behave in ways that policymakers have hoped for.
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