Wall Street credit scorer compared fourth-quarter home prices in 381 metro areas to underlying economic fundamentals, including rents.
It could be worse: Boise City, Idaho was the nation’s most-overvalued market with prices 25.9% too high. Next came two Florida markets — Naples and Pensacola .
Just 37 of the 381 markets were deemed “undervalued” — with Carbondale, Ill., the best value at 17.4% too low. Next was Morgantown, W.V. and Northern California’s Santa Rosa .San Francisco was the most overvalued metro with prices seen as 17.1% too high. That overvaluation topped 88% of all U.S. metros.Other double-digit overvaluations were San Diego , Sacramento , Visalia , Santa Barbara , Yuba City , San Jose , Bakersfield , Modesto and Merced .
Smaller overvaluations were Madera , Salinas , San Luis Obispo , and Ventura County — then came L.A.-O.C.’s 7.3% and the I.E.’s 7.2% — followed by Stockton , Fresno , Vallejo , Chico , Hanford , Redding and Santa Cruz .On a scale of zero bubbles to five bubbles …The median overvaluation of the 26 California metros was 8.5% compared — that’s above Southern California scores but better than the national median of 9.1%.
However, you might say this is ancient history, in homebuying years. Plenty has changed since 2022 started — like a historic surge in mortgage rates. Still, these valuations suggest many California housing markets were relatively sanely priced before homebuying swiftly got far pricier this year.
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