The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has a higher threshold of $100 per barrel for Dubai crude oil compared to its previous assumptions, allowing it some “good margin” to forecast inflation going forward, according to BSP Deputy Governor Francisco Dakila Jr.
This means the BSP’s inflation forecasts for 2023 and 2024 will remain intact for as long as the $100 per barrel latest Dubai crude oil assumption is not breached, said Dakila during the administration’s Philippine Economic Briefing on Wednesday, Aug. 9, in Davao.
Based on the BSP’s latest simulation, they have a threshold of $100 per barrel for oil “before oil will cause a breach of our inflation target for next year,” he said. Dubai crude oil is priced at around $87 per barrel at the moment. In the May simulation, to assess the impact of various outcomes in global oil prices on the inflation forecasts for 2023 to 2024, the scenarios used by the BSP ranged from $70 per barrel to $130 per barrel.
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