From Breakingviews - Xavier Niel can feast on European telco misery
through another vehicle, Atlas Investissement. Those shareholdings have a combined market value of 1.2 billion euros, though they were partly funded through derivatives, potentially limiting the tycoon’s cash outlay. They may provide some clout in future M&A. A possible breakup of Vodafone could help Niel revive aDealmaking has not always been easy.
swooped on Sunrise. Still, valuing Salt’s 549 million euros of EBITDA at a multiple of 7 times – in line with other Swiss groups – implies the business is worth 3.8 billion euros. That’s 37% more than what he paid to take control in 2014. An investment in Irish carrier Eir has fared less well. The company is Ireland’s largest fixed-line operator but has struggled to win mobile customers. On a multiple of 6 times last year’s EBITDA of 652 million euros it’s worth little more than the 3.5 billion euros Niel and other investorsin 2017. Smaller investments in Monaco Telecom and holdings in Senegal and the Comoros are probably worth a combined billion euros, bankers estimate.
While this patchwork of telecoms networks may seem to lack industrial logic, it allows Niel to spread his bets in an uncertain environment. Any future dealmaking in Europe depends on antitrust regulators taking a softer approach to consolidation, which has yet to materialise. And although debt financing has become more expensive, Niel does not appear to rely on excessive leverage. His portfolio gives him a ticket to play in the M&A merry-go-round, whenever the music starts.
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