Breakingviews - First Abu Dhabi and StanChart may have second act

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Breakingviews - First Abu Dhabi and StanChart may have second act
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From Breakingviews - First Abu Dhabi and StanChart may have second act

StanChart is also cheap. Even with a 30% equity premium FAB could snap up StanChart for $30 billion, or around 70% of expected tangible book value. That’s a 28% discount to other Asia-focused lenders, according to Breakingviews calculations. Not bad for a bank that Barclays analysts reckon could make a 10% return on tangible equity in 2024. FAB may think it can hack back StanChart’s costs, which are two-thirds of income.

The obvious stumbling block is capital. StanChart’s balance sheet is three times FAB’s $300 billion, and the UK bank’s $253 billion of risk-weighted assets dwarf the UAE bank’s $158 billion. Post-2008 globalpenalise banks for being bigger and more complicated, which means the combined group might have to hold extra capital to the tune of around 0.5% to 1% of risk-weighted assets. That’s potentially an increase of $2 billion to $4 billion, according to Breakingviews calculations.

Tahnoon may see this as too much bother. After all, he would have a job persuading Singapore wealth fund Temasek, which holds 16% of StanChart, to accept what would presumably be an all-share merger in which FAB would hold 62% of the combined entity. Temasek might also baulk at supporting a potential $4 billion rights issue to fill a capital hole. StanChart’s structure of national fiefdoms may complicate cost cuts, regulatory approvals and may even add to capital.

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