Eni is hunting for a bargain in the North Sea, writes gfhay
earlier this year. High oil and gas prices mean it could make $8.8 billion of EBITDA in 2022, according to Refinitiv-compiled estimates. Adding in its $2.5 billion of net debt, the business is worth only 1.3 times that EBITDA.
Neptune made $2.9 billion of EBITDA in the first nine months of 2022, over double last year’s levels. At that rate, it could generate $3.5 billion this year. Using Vår’s multiple, Neptune would be worth $4.6 billion including debt, and its equity barely $4 billion. Even without the IPO history, you could see why Executive Chairman Sam Laidlaw might say no.
Laidlaw can argue that Neptune is less concentrated than Vår, with a third of its production in Norway and a tenth in the UK. Diversified oil groups like Shell trade on 3 times 2022 EBITDA. Moreover, Eni’s scope to mesh Vår together with Neptune implies a control premium to reflect likely cost synergies. Lastly, with 75% of its production in lower carbon gas, Neptune is also arguably worth more to the Italian major, which
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