China’s rubber-stamp parliament could be a forum for more substantive debate this year. The weeklong “Two Sessions” of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference are usually scripted, self-congratulatory affairs. The 2022 agenda might be hurriedly rewritten as Ukraine and Hong Kong disrupt plans.
Reports transmitted from the gathering on economic targets and industrial policy initiatives are closely watched by investors. The broad expectation is that China will announce a GDP growth target higher than 5% for 2022. The goal might be tough to hit, but there are more fundamental issues for the 5,000 delegates to discuss.
Meanwhile, ructions in the property market, part of a wider economic slowdown, have severely disrupted activity. Should financial technocrats stick to their hard line on deleveraging, which would imply a much slower growth target, or sharply relax policy?The war in Ukraine also has limned China’s dependence on the U.S. dollar and highlighted its exposure to sanctions if it were to make a move on Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province.
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